The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), situated in New Delhi, predicted that the Indian economy will develop at a rate greater than 7% in the fiscal year 2024–2025 (FY25) in its April 2024 Monthly Economic Review (MER).
Anticipated increases in trade volumes and global growth, along with the expectation of an above-average monsoon, will propel this.
Key Features:
- The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased 16 years to 59.1 in March 2024 from 56.9 in February 2024, suggesting a strong expansion.
- The PMI for services increased from 60.6 in February 2024 to 61.2 in March 2024, indicating a boom in the economy. In March 2024, the composite PMI rose from 60.6 in February 2024 to 61.8.
- With 13.4 billion transactions in March 2024—a jump of 55.3% YoY (year-over-year)—the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) records the largest volume since its founding in 2016.
- In March 2024, Goods and Services Tax (GST) receipts reached Rs. 1.8 lakh crore, the second-highest amount since the tax’s introduction in 2017. It showed an 11.5% year-over-year gain.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a decline in headline inflation from 5.1% in February 2024 to 4.9% in March 2024, while core inflation fell from 3.4% in February 2024 to 3.2% in March 2024.
- From 8.7% in February 2024 to 8.5% in March 2024, the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) shows an increase in inflation.
- From 0.2% in February 2024 to 0.5% (Provisional Estimates) in March 2024, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) will see faster inflation.
- Employment indications are conflicting; EPFO reports a YoY increase in new subscribers, but total online hiring is low.
Additional Information:
- India is expected to benefit economically from rising global GDP.
- The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 7% GDP growth prediction for FY25 is surpassed by NCAER’s optimistic estimate.
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) increases its prediction of 6.8% GDP growth in India for FY25 compared to the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) 7% estimate.